The Institute of Economic Research and Public Policy (IERPP) has criticized the government’s 2025 Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review, describing key economic claims in the document as misleading, incomplete, and potentially damaging to public trust.
Speaking at a press conference held at the Ghana International Press Centre on Wednesday, July 30, 2025, Dr. Frank Bannor, Senior Research Fellow at IERPP and lecturer at GIMPA, exposed the Finance Ministry of promoting an inaccurate narrative of economic progress while omitting critical data, particularly in the real and fiscal sectors.
Questionable GDP Growth Claim
Citing page 15 of the mid-year budget statement, IERPP took issue with a statement made by Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, who claimed:
“Non-oil GDP growth also picked up strongly, growing at 6.8% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to 4.3% in the same period in 2024. The non-oil GDP growth is the highest since 2018.”
However, Dr. Bannor noted that data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) contradicts this claim. The GSS reports that non-oil GDP growth for the third quarter of 2024 stood at 8%, making the 6.8% growth in Q1 2025 clearly not the highest since 2018.
“This is not a harmless mistake. When facts fall, trust crumbles. Accuracy in economic reporting isn’t optional—it’s the foundation of sound public policy,” Dr. Bannor stated.
Neglect of the Services Sector
The IERPP also expressed concern over the government’s apparent marginalization of the services sector, which continues to serve as the largest and most significant contributor to Ghana’s GDP and employment.
According to paragraph 63 of the budget, the industrial sector, claimed to constitute the largest share of the economy at 46.8%—grew by 3.4% and contributed 20.6% to overall growth. But the IERPP pointed out that the services sector actually recorded a real GDP growth of 6.3% in Q4 2024, outperforming other sectors.
Dr. Bannor emphasized that the services sector, which includes key sub-sectors such as trade, hospitality, ICT, public administration, health, and education, plays a critical role in job creation and economic stability.
“You can’t grow jobs by sidelining the sector that creates them. A decline in the growth of this sector translates to rising job losses and deteriorating living standards,” he said.
Omission of Fiscal Data
In a striking departure from past practice, the 2025 mid-year review failed to update fiscal data from the previous year—an omission Dr. Bannor considers highly irregular.
Traditionally, mid-year reviews offer revised and final data to replace provisional figures presented in the main budget. Comparing tables from the 2017 and 2025 budgets, IERPP highlighted the stark absence of updated figures in the current review.
“This is the first time we’ve seen a mid-year budget fail to provide updates on prior year fiscal performance. What is the Ministry hiding?,” Dr. Bannor queried.
Oil Revenue Dip Ignored
The IERPP Senior Research also questioned the government’s silence on a major development in the oil and gas sector. He mentioned that, in the first half of 2025, oil revenue stood at $370.6 million, less than half of the $840 million recorded during the same period in 2024.
Dr. Bannor indicated that, despite the sharp decline, the mid-year budget offered no explanation or policy direction to address the shortfall.
“This is not a minor dip. This is a significant revenue gap with major implications for public financing, yet the Minister says nothing,” he said.
Transparency and Accuracy
Dr Bannor urged the government to revise the mid-year budget with accurate data, transparent analysis, and a renewed focus on the sectors that truly drive economic growth and employment.
“Misleading statistics and critical omissions erode public trust and damage policy credibility. We call on the Finance Minister to provide updated, fact-based data and stop painting a rosy picture that does not reflect reality,” Dr. Bannor added.
