Ghana’s public debt increased by nearly GHC47 billion between February and May, but President of Africa Policy Lens, Dr George Domfe, says the figures must be interpreted carefully due to the impact of exchange rate movements.
Speaking on the Asaase Breakfast Show on Wednesday, 22 July, Dr Domfe cautioned against relying solely on nominal debt figures to assess Ghana’s debt position, explaining that fluctuations in the value of the cedi can significantly affect the local currency value of the country’s debt stock.
His comments follow reports that Ghana’s total debt stock rose from GHC386.1 billion in March to about GHC720 billion by the end of May.
Dr Domfe said an appreciation of the cedi could result in an increase in the cedi value of debt even when the actual debt in dollar terms is reducing.
He explained that if Ghana’s debt is measured in dollars and the cedi gains strength against the dollar, the conversion into cedi terms may create the impression of a sharp increase.
“We need to be very careful when we are discussing debt and using nominal figures,” he said.
Dr Domfe referenced previous periods where Ghana’s debt stock increased significantly in cedi terms due to exchange rate depreciation, arguing that such increases should not automatically be interpreted as fresh borrowing.
He cited the period under President John Mahama’s previous administration, when Ghana’s debt stock stood at about US$29.2 billion but translated into a much higher figure in cedi terms after the exchange rate weakened.
However, Dr Domfe said the more important measure to consider is Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio, which he described as a better reflection of debt sustainability because it accounts for exchange rate variations.
According to him, Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 42.2% in February to 45.1% by May, a development he said raises concerns.
“The debt-to-GDP ratio is what is telling us that the increase is not all exchange rate. Exchange rate might have partly contributed, but significantly the government is borrowing,” he said.
Dr Domfe explained that while exchange rate movements may influence the headline debt figures, the rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that Ghana’s borrowing levels are increasing faster than economic output.
He urged stakeholders to focus on whether borrowed funds are being used in ways that expand the economy and improve Ghana’s ability to repay its obligations.
Source: asaaseradio.com
